Commentary: Staying open to China travellers is a huge economic gamble for Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia needs Chinese travellers for its post-pandemic economic recovery but staying open to China is a huge gamble with equally big returns, says business writer Raini Hamdi.
SINGAPORE: Having pined for a return of Chinese tourists, the global tourism industry must now deal with the headaches of having its wish come true.
Countries are now choosing whether to participate in the Great Reopening immediately, or wait to see how the risks of a fresh COVID-19 wave play out elsewhere. There is already a clear divide.
Southeast Asia seems all for it, with most not imposing any measures. On Monday (Jan 9), Singapore Health Minister Ong Ye Kung affirmed no changes to Singapore’s border measures – all travellers are required to be fully vaccinated or have a negative pre-departure test (PDT) result.
Malaysia is an outlier, announcing on Tuesday it would operate special lanes for China travellers at its international entry points with on-arrival testing. Elsewhere, the United States and some European Union countries have imposed a PDT requirement on travellers from China.
But this is not an East and West divide: Japan was among the first countries to announce a negative PDT requirement; Morocco makes history by being the first country to ban all arrivals from China.
A HUGE ECONOMIC GAMBLE
What it is, is a huge economic and political gamble. Southeast Asia needs Chinese travellers desperately for its economic recovery.
In 2019, the region received around 32 million Chinese visitors, or 23 per cent of its total arrivals, according to ASEAN Statistics Division. Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore were the top three ASEAN destinations for Chinese arrivals, in that order.
By 2020, all received only a fraction of what they used to get in 2019: Thailand, just 1.2 million in 2020 down from 11 million in 2019; Vietnam 900,000 down from 5.8 million and Singapore, 357,000 down from 3.6 million pre-pandemic.
Thailand would be happy if it received just 5 million Chinese tourists this year. A Singapore Tourism Board spokesperson said forecast figures are not available currently.
But there could be unintended consequences. Could others be deterred from travelling for fear of increased exposure to COVID-19 infection? Will China squeeze out markets such as Indonesia and India, which supported Singapore’s tourism industry last year?
Every country is weighing up the potential economic gains against the possibility of offending China. Beijing, bristling from entry restrictions by a string of countries, has warned it would apply “countermeasures based on the principle of reciprocity”, saying the restrictions imposed “lack scientific basis”. On Tuesday, it suspended visas for South Korea and Japan arrivals.
What narrative the science sells depends on where you are. Western politicians and health experts argue that millions of Chinese increase the risk of another “game-changing” variant emerging.
Those in Southeast Asia assuage such fears by flagging high immunity and vaccination rates, along with more than two years of experience in handling COVID-19. Singapore said about 40 per cent of the population have been infected, 56 per cent with up-to-date vaccination, while healthcare capacity has also been boosted.
